How to obtain supercars

[graywolf624]

Broke?? Right... I work in the industry so i do actually actually know what im talking about... Seriously. I'd go long oil.

I do have a degree focusing on resource usage such as this.. Read the thread:
http://www.motorworld.net/forum/show...er=asc&start=0
For long term debunk about the price of oil increasing. Economic law proves it impossible in the same way as laws of gravity.

I've spent 4 years of my life studying this markets price/ functions. *Simply working in an industry doesnt give a full understanding of the macroenvironment(I know very little of the pharmaceutical macro environment beyond foreign trade issues, yet Ive been there for quite a while) My short run predictions are slightly more murky(but have so far held) and several big players in the market agree with me(forbes, morgan stanley, ect).
The price of oil is a bubble and it will burst.

If you were smart youd have bought oil futures back when the media started its doom saying.. and should have sold them already. Prolly should be considering going short on the remainder.
The stocks as well are about at their peak.. Never buy at a peak. Stock prices are based on the perception of future profits. Thus any doom sayer short run prophesies(for shortrun only imagined as I say or real(long term is 100 percent imagined)) are already priced into the stocks and oil futures. Thus your not going to make money jumping in at this point, your most likely going to lose.

So far IVe been correct with the shortrun predictions as the price has continuely dropped.. then about last week I predicted to a friend that the news media would force it up one more time for a short while cause they dont have anything else to whine about(again this time through the new hurricane).. But the downward trend will continue afterward.

[crayzayjay]

Originally Posted by graywolf624 Broke?? Right... I work in the industry so i do actually actually know what im talking about... Seriously. I'd go long oil. I do have a degree focusing on resource usage such as this.. Read the thread: http://www.motorworld.net/forum/show...er=asc&start=0 For long term debunk about the price of oil increasing. Economic law proves it impossible in the same way as laws of gravity. I've spent 4 years of my life studying this markets price/ functions. *Simply working in an industry doesnt give a full understanding of the macroenvironment(I know very little of the pharmaceutical macro environment beyond foreign trade issues, yet Ive been there for quite a while) My short run predictions are slightly more murky(but have so far held) and several big players in the market agree with me(forbes, morgan stanley, ect). The price of oil is a bubble and it will burst. If you were smart youd have bought oil futures back when the media started its doom saying.. and should have sold them already. Prolly should be considering going short on the remainder. The stocks as well are about at their peak.. Never buy at a peak. Stock prices are based on the perception of future profits. Thus any doom sayer short run prophesies(for shortrun only imagined as I say or real(long term is 100 percent imagined)) are already priced into the stocks and oil futures. Thus your not going to make money jumping in at this point, your most likely going to lose. So far IVe been correct with the shortrun predictions as the price has continuely dropped.. then about last week I predicted to a friend that the news media would force it up one more time for a short while cause they dont have anything else to whine about(again this time through the new hurricane).. But the downward trend will continue afterward.

Never buy at a peak? I've personally invested in several stocks at what were then peaks and made great returns. I don't pretend for a moment that working in the finance industry means i know better than you. But i have done my homework, and am privvy to trustworthy advice from oil industry experts. My uncle co-founded a petrochemicals company that is now worth over half a billion quid. He tends to think there's more upside, and i tend to agree with him

[dingo]

Originally Posted by jon_s ....80 hours a week is the norm. ....

Shit, I need to start working harder. ops:

I would be on my way to a Ferrari if I got paid for 80hrs a week instead of ~40.

[callen]

Originally Posted by dani_d_mas Buy a lotto ticket... and mark these numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42 8)

I like those numbers Dani but these are better: 8, 12, 25, 35, 36, 43 .... can you guess where i got em from? heheh

[graywolf624]

Never buy at a peak? I've personally invested in several stocks at what were then peaks and made great returns. I don't pretend for a moment that working in the finance industry means i know better than you. But i have done my homework, and am privvy to trustworthy advice from oil industry experts. My uncle co-founded a petrochemicals company that is now worth over half a billion quid. He tends to think there's more upside, and i tend to agree with him

Yet again, not possible in the long run.

As for the short run, Youve only made great returns when those weren't really the peaks. The thing is, all signs point to decreasing oil prices in the next few months. Now perhaps those signs of , to uses forbes words, a bubble may be false. That being said the trace to speculation in the futures market is almost a direct map. That only lasts as long as the speculation lasts, and the news media can only cry wolf about 4 dollar a barrel gas for so long. Meanwhile the price of oil is in a downward spiral after katrina till this latest short term rita jump.

As someone who works in finance you should know that the law of efficient markets states that all future revenue expectations are priced into the value of a stock, so analyzing the past performance is useless. You should also realize that the price of oil is being jacked up by speculation. Now perhaps you believe the news media can keep up the charade longer, personally I think itll come down like the dot com bust.

[ZfrkS62]

Originally Posted by graywolf624 Never buy at a peak? I've personally invested in several stocks at what were then peaks and made great returns. I don't pretend for a moment that working in the finance industry means i know better than you. But i have done my homework, and am privvy to trustworthy advice from oil industry experts. My uncle co-founded a petrochemicals company that is now worth over half a billion quid. He tends to think there's more upside, and i tend to agree with him Yet again, not possible in the long run. As for the short run, Youve only made great returns when those weren't really the peaks. The thing is, all signs point to decreasing oil prices in the next few months. Now perhaps those signs of , to uses forbes words, a bubble may be false. That being said the trace to speculation in the futures market is almost a direct map. That only lasts as long as the speculation lasts, and the news media can only cry wolf about 4 dollar a barrel gas for so long. Meanwhile the price of oil is in a downward spiral after katrina till this latest short term rita jump. As someone who works in finance you should know that the law of efficient markets states that all future revenue expectations are priced into the value of a stock, so analyzing the past performance is useless. You should also realize that the price of oil is being jacked up by speculation. Now perhaps you believe the news media can keep up the charade longer, personally I think itll come down like the dot com bust.

If you still don't believe him after that, look at it this way: Gas prices here are already back to what they were before Katrina.

[crayzayjay]

Originally Posted by graywolf624 As for the short run, Youve only made great returns when those weren't really the peaks.

Not really the peaks? What are you on, buddy? If a stock is trading at an all-time high, then at that point in time, it's at a peak.

Originally Posted by graywolf624 The thing is, all signs point to decreasing oil prices in the next few months. Now perhaps those signs of , to uses forbes words, a bubble may be false. That being said the trace to speculation in the futures market is almost a direct map. That only lasts as long as the speculation lasts, and the news media can only cry wolf about 4 dollar a barrel gas for so long. Meanwhile the price of oil is in a downward spiral after katrina till this latest short term rita jump.

I'm looking at it beyond the next few months. And you think im long on oil solely because of a hurricane? You think traders buy and sell because something is on CNN? There is always 'noise', but the oil price is mainly driven by fundamentals.

Originally Posted by graywolf624 As someone who works in finance you should know that the law of efficient markets states that all future revenue expectations are priced into the value of a stock, so analyzing the past performance is useless.

Get some market experience, then tell me what you think of the law of efficient markets.

Originally Posted by graywolf624 so analyzing the past performance is useless

Tell that to any trader and he will laugh at you.

Originally Posted by graywolf624 You should also realize that the price of oil is being jacked up by speculation. Now perhaps you believe the news media can keep up the charade longer, personally I think itll come down like the dot com bust.

The difference between this and the dotcom bubble is that there was no precedent for valuing those types of businesses. Oil has been valued in much the same way as it ever has. Unless China decides, oh i dont know, to stop growing next year, there will be no crash in the oil price.

[crayzayjay]

Originally Posted by ZfrkS62 If you still don't believe him after that, look at it this way: Gas prices here are already back to what they were before Katrina.

What's your point? Seriously.


You guys need to forget about how much it costs to fill up your car for a second. Global demand for oil has never been so high. That is the main driver behind the rising oil price. Not CNN.

[ZfrkS62]

Originally Posted by crayzayjay Originally Posted by ZfrkS62 If you still don't believe him after that, look at it this way: Gas prices here are already back to what they were before Katrina. What's your point? Seriously.

The point is that the price of oil is not going to stay high. It skyrocketed after Katrina but here we are about 3 weeks later and prices are back down. it'll be high after Rita depending on how bad she is when she makes land fall.

it has been mentioned before that natural resources will never stay high. As our focus shifts towards other forms of energy, oil prices will start to fall as the demand for it drops off.

I'd only stick with oil futures for about 15 more years, max.

[graywolf624]

Not really the peaks? What are you on, buddy? If a stock is trading at an all-time high, then at that point in time, it's at a peak.

A peak is not being at the all time high for the stock. A peak is the point where it begins a downward spiral.

I'm looking at it beyond the next few months. And you think im long on oil solely because of a hurricane? You think traders buy and sell because something is on CNN? There is always 'noise', but the oil price is mainly driven by fundamentals.

Except it hasnt been over the last few years.. Go look at that thread.. the price of gas has been driven by oil futures since the start of the iraq war. Also read any basic economics book and youll learn that the price of any natural good always drops in the long run. Proven fact.

Get some market experience, then tell me what you think of the law of efficient markets. graywolf624 wrote: so analyzing the past performance is useless Tell that to any trader and he will laugh at you.

Judging by the fact that analysis of those traders has proven that their predictions are correct only 50 percent of the time, the same as if you randomly picked, kinda proves my point. The law of efficient markets is true in so far as previous performance cant be analyzed to show future predictions, cause that previous performance is factored into the price of the stock. The truely good traders are the ones that can act earlier then anyone else.. Say in a valley or at the base of an uptrend, as your stating. Its not based on analysis, but rather speed of action.

I have plenty of market experience, thank you very much.

The difference between this and the dotcom bubble is that there was no precedent for valuing those types of businesses. Oil has been valued in much the same way as it ever has. Unless China decides, oh i dont know, to stop growing next year, there will be no crash in the oil price.

Actually in fact there was a type of way to value these business'.. The same one that values oil and every business in the world. When you start to think your business or market is somehow special is when you end up losing your shirt. The price of oil yet again.. Is 100 percent currently tied to the speculation in the futures market. The price of none of the fundamentals has increased other then the price per barrel driven by the speculation(there is no scarcity, not like you have dificulty getting a hold on gas).

[crayzayjay]

15 years? And isnt that a long-term investment? Christ, you have to cash in before you die!

[graywolf624]

10-20 years is about the start of long term. Anything below 10 is considered medium or short term.

[ZfrkS62]

Originally Posted by crayzayjay 15 years? And isnt that a long-term investment? Christ, you have to cash in before you die!

dude, where'd you learn to add? that would put me at 37. hardly an old age and at the rate time seems to have been flying by, 15 years aint shit.

I've been thinking along the lines of realistically when the alternative fuels vehicles will be hitting the market. and with the arguments about hydrogen, despite the amount of manufacturers working on it, i'm thinking it is going to be about 15 years until they emerge and oil starts to slip.

Gray will probably tell me i'm being a bit optimistic in that thought though :roll:

[crayzayjay]

Originally Posted by graywolf624 Except it hasnt been over the last few years.. Go look at that thread.. the price of gas has been driven by oil futures since the start of the iraq war. Also read any basic economics book and youll learn that the price of any natural good always drops in the long run. Proven fact.

And what is the futures price equal to? Spot price + cost of carry....

Originally Posted by graywolf624 Also read any basic economics book and youll learn that the price of any natural good always drops in the long run. Proven fact.

Of course, the price of oil cannot rise forever, i didnt suggest it would.

Originally Posted by graywolf624 Judging by the fact that analysis of those traders has proven that their predictions are correct only 50 percent of the time, the same as if you randomly picked, kinda proves my point. The law of efficient markets is true in so far as previous performance cant be analyzed to show future predictions, cause that previous performance is factored into the price of the stock. The truely good traders are the ones that can act earlier then anyone else.. Say in a valley or at the base of an uptrend, as your stating. Its not based on analysis, but rather speed of action.

Debating what makes a good trader could take a while. But if you think there is no analysis involved you are insane. You think that Goldmans trader in the City cashed a $50m bonus last year because he's quick on the draw?

Originally Posted by graywolf624 Actually in fact there was a type of way to value these business'.. The same one that values oil and every business in the world. When you start to think your business or market is somehow special is when you end up losing your shirt. The price of oil yet again.. Is 100 percent currently tied to the speculation in the futures market. The price of none of the fundamentals has increased other then the price per barrel driven by the speculation(there is no scarcity, not like you have dificulty getting a hold on gas).

When one says 'fundamentals', it means fundamental drivers, which don't necessarily carry a price. I would have thought someone with market experience would know that. And no, there was no precedent for valuing dotcom companies, which is why people lost a lot of money.

[crayzayjay]

Originally Posted by graywolf624 10-20 years is about the start of long term. Anything below 10 is considered medium or short term.

Fair enough, but things changed a bit when hedge funds came into the mix. I used to work for a fund that invested with a 1-2 year horizon. We were considered long-term investors by the sell-side.

Either way, i wouldnt look at oil as a 10 year investment.